Tuesday, 27 July 2010

Battle of the Millibands

According to the list of CLP nominations in today on Labourlist from my former colleague Luke Akehurst, there are only two horses in the race. Although from MP nominations it may have seemed this way for some time, these were a fairly poor indicator, IMHO. After all, how much difference is it likely to make which way a few hundred MPs vote? Interestingly some (like my other former colleague John Mann) have switched their allegiance to DM having seen the results in their own CLP. Well, it's good for Party democracy, I guess.

Anyway, as I said in my comments on LabourList: on the regional breakdown, interesting to see that David Milliband is doing particularly well in heartland Labour areas such as North, Scotland, West Mids. Ed Milliband is mostly doing well in less strong Labour areas, London being an exception, but then again London has never warmed to figures perceived to be to the right of the Party. No surprises that Andy Burnham has done well in his native North West, or that DM has too in the South East "Middle England" belt.

Overall it looks good for David Milliband, although his brother may run him close - this is a good cross-section of Party opinion. No-one else has really got a prayer, on this analysis. But hey, I thought the Lib Dems and the Tories could never make a coalition!

For the record, my vote will be with David, should there be no major revelations in the next few weeks. He's not perfect, but he's the only one you can truly imagine opening the door to No. 10.


  1. I can't help feeling that there's a great deal of exaggeration in the potential differences between brothers.

    I'm glad that the campaign has progressed in a friendly way, which I think is a good sign for the future.

  2. Think I have to agree - all the candidates and their campaign teams are (perhaps understandably) trying to talk up differences when there aren't that many, with the exception of Diane Abbott.

    And it's good that there's not been backbiting - it's easy to pretend we're back in 1983 and all is very black, when we're clearly not - we've had a defeat and can't be at all complacent, we need to regroup and rethink, but we're still fairly united as a party and hence dangerous for the Tories.

  3. One big difference between previous defeats is that we are now, in much of the country, *the* alternative.

    I think there's a danger in the exaggeration that is going on, particularly amongst some supporters of the two leading candidates.

  4. Indeed, even if the Lib Dems leave the coalition their vote is likely to suffer from disillusioned social democrats. Mind you, even though their may be some exaggeration between the candidates, the media think it's the most boring leadership election on record - another good sign. When the media's most happy is when we're tearing each other apart.


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