Monday, 18 January 2010

Climate change - rational expectations

A great, incredibly logical argument for those with rational minds but who don't accept that global warming is proven. Read it and tell me where the flaw is...


  1. Many people do not respond at all to rational argument and will be more willing to respond to an argument relates to their direct circumstances. Given the recent weather I've had a lot of comments along the lines of "huh! global warming, I'll give you global warming!"

    I'd argue that resource depletion is a stronger argument for green policies. For example, we know that demand for energy will grow - pushing up the cost of non-renewable energy sources.

    Hope you and your family had a good festive season, Rob. I wish you a belated happy new year!

  2. Well firstly a happy New Year to you too. As for my family we've found out we are going to be one more in September, so I hope global resources stretch to that...

    Yes, I take your point that the argument doesn't necessarily appeal to everyone (the guy's slightly smug as well, but hey). But if you have a reasonable understanding of science or maths, it's pretty convincing, I think - who wouldn't act given that matrix of possibilities?

    Resource depletion is a good argument in broad terms. The problem is that it's hard to make hard projections, as no-one really knows exactly when the resources will run out. That detracts from the immediacy of the argument (act now!) Add to that the fact that, for older people, they already heard the green lobby predicting the death of fossil fuels in the late 70s, and then were found to have got it wrong. For both reasons you'll find a lot of scepticism on the subject of fossil fuel depletion, despite the fact that this time the evidence is better. But yes, it's another tool in the armoury to take the argument to the public.

  3. Congratulations, Rob, that's great news. I'm sure that your daughter can't wait to become an older sister! Hope it all goes well for you guys.


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