Sunday, 15 February 2015

A little dignity, a little pride

While Labour has not had a brilliant last couple of weeks in the election campaign – its barely-coherent policy on the NHS being a case in point – the jury is still emphatically out on who will win, thanks largely to this parliament’s highly unusual electoral arithmetic.

With things so tight in the polls, a big part of winning for both main parties is surely about their MPs keeping their heads down and their eyes on the prize. In other words, it is as much about thinking that they will win and convincing others of that fact, as pounding the streets of Britain on the “Labour doorstep”.

So discipline is vital. The Tories, now battle-hardened after “holding the line” through five years of government, seem to be making a reasonable fist of it (even Boris Johnson has had the good sense to absent himself abroad, rather than be a distraction to the Tory campaign).

Labour, well, not so much.

Saturday, 31 January 2015

Podemos: it's not what you think, British left

After the electoral success of Syriza in Greece, comes a massive demonstration in favour of Podemos in Madrid's Plaza del Sol. The British left has been quick to see Syriza as the start of something. Surely there is about to be an Iberian repeat of that anti-austerity win, which will kill the Euro-zone's austerity policies off for good?

Hmm, not necessarily. Things are still a little more stable in Spain, despite some serious economic challenges, such as having one in four people unemployed. And the movements aren't really the same, either.

As usual with these things, there is an easy narrative: in this case, to class both movements as popular uprisings of the left against capitalism. But whereas Syriza really is essentially an unreconstructed party of the radical left, more the equivalent of Respect in the UK, Podemos is a more anti-politics-as-usual force, not so clearly aligned and mostly supported by Spaniards of all stripes who are genuinely disgusted with traditional parties.

Thursday, 29 January 2015

It’s still all about leadership

For the last few years, Labour Uncut - and this blog - have been repeating pretty much the same message: the Tories will mainly fight this election on two things: leadership and the economy.

They haven’t disappointed. So far, they seem to have been talking about little else.

Thing is, at this point the argument over the economy is a difficult one. To the politically-attuned, the Tories may just be perceived – even among their own supporters – as having called their last Budget badly and overdone austerity. But among ordinary folk, the reality is that Labour is still not trusted on the economy and that this would tend to trump unease with the Tories.

The logic is not exactly complex: “Labour will borrow more” is the Tory attack line. Labour’s strategy is to reply with the economically correct, and yet politically inept, response that we will leave the door open to borrow, but only to invest.

As if the average voter is likely to distinguish between leaving the door open and doing, or between capital and expense accounting in their feelings about the two main parties.

As if.

Sunday, 25 January 2015

Ten reasons why modern Russia is absolutely nothing like pre-war Germany

So, apart from being a great nation who made a partial recovery after a great humiliation; vigorous rearmament; piecemeal neighbour-annexing; pursuing ultra-nationalist policies; persecuting minorities and any critics of the regime; a charismatic leader propagating a dual narrative for the country of both macho strength and victimhood; a controversial Olympics used as a propaganda tool for a nationalist resurgence; continuing to pretend to cooperate with Europe's governments and then break its promises; and cultivating appeasers abroad, there was clearly a very good reason why Russia was different from pre-war Germany. 

Russia was not in a major economic crisis.

Until now. As the Economist pointed out yesterday, largely thanks to the tanking oil price, Russian bonds are already practically junk.

So, a recap of those ten remaining reasons why Russia and pre-war Germany are different again:
  1. Russia has nuclear weapons.
  2. Er...
  3. That's it.
  4.  
  5.  
  6.  
  7.  
  8.  
  9.  
  10.  
Phew, that's alright then. We're perfectly safe continuing to do next to nothing about Ukraine. It'll all end well.

Saturday, 17 January 2015

There is a debate going on about the future of British Islam. Labour needs to join it

Charlie Hebdo's brilliant, poignant cover after the fatal
attacks on its offices, depicting Mohammed as on the
side of the victims
Following last week’s fatal shootings in the offices of Charlie Hebdo in Paris, Monday night’s superbly-timed Panorama: The Battle for British Islam gave an insight into Islamic radicalism and the narratives which feed it.

The most notable thing, as a number commented on Twitter during the programme, was not so much that it was telling a few home truths about radicalism on prime-time television; but that it was being broadcast on the BBC, the heart of the liberal media establishment. (It is also a great tribute, incidentally, to why we still need public-service broadcasting, the Beeb being practically alone, among its not-so-brave British mainstream media competition, in showing the offending Charlie Hebdo cartoons.)

It was also possibly the first mainstream documentary which has homed in, correctly, on the poisonous “grievance narrative” – that Muslims are oppressed in Britain, singled out and victimised for their beliefs – which, as the program points out, is helping drive young Muslims away from their families and towards jihad. Racism exists, yes: but it also exists in non-Muslim ethnic communities, where the results are undeniably less extreme.

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